Playing the Puppies: A Guide to Springfield Downs
Jul 17, 2013 10:48:16 GMT -5
lakooo, BatusiMan, and 4 more like this
Post by indydude33 on Jul 17, 2013 10:48:16 GMT -5
I remember the day I first placed Springfield Downs in my town. (This actually takes a bit of remembering. It’s been a long time!) I was so excited to have a new “kind” of building in Springfield and envisioned playing a sort of “mini-game” at the Downs with the chance to win some cash. Then the reality of the Downs hit me. I was losing far more than I was winning. I had no idea which odds I should be betting. And, since I was still trying to build my town, I couldn’t afford to throw money away like that. So, Springfield Downs sat unused, its sad little doggy head floating over the track.
I had always hoped someone might write a guide to betting at the Downs. So when EA reconfigured the odds recently, I set out to do just that. Here’s what I found out. I hope it might prove helpful to others.
ODDS – What do they mean?
I am not a gambler in real life, so the first thing I had to do was try to figure out what those odds actually meant – or are supposed to mean.
Racing odds are expressed in terms of the payout. Odds are expressed as a ratio – two numbers separated by a colon. The first number is your potential earnings (if your dog wins) and the second number is what is known as the “stake” (the amount of money you’re betting). At the Downs, you are always betting $2,000. So, if your dog is racing at 2:1 odds, what should happen when you win is that the track will pay you 2 dollars for every 1 dollar you “staked.” I say “should happen” because that’s what would happen at a real horse or dog track. At Springfield Downs, a $2,000 bet at 2:1 odds will actually earn you $6,000.
All of the various betting levels at Springfield Downs have a similarly generous pay-out.
Now, in the real world, the odds are expressed in terms of the payout because, while bookies can make a reasonable guess as to a likelihood of winning, they can’t know exactly. The odds reflect that likelihood, but no one could ever say that if the same race were run 3 times, that horse would win once and lose twice.
At Springfield Downs, however, where the dogs are electronically programmed, it actually IS possible to say that a dog racing at 2:1 odds will win one race out of every three. I can’t say for certain that EA has set the races up that way, but my findings do show that the odds do seem to reflect the likelihood of winning.
BETTING THE ODDS
OK, this is the part you’re interested in. I’ve noted from posts in other threads that most people tend to bet repeatedly at the same odds. The most frequent odds I’ve seen mentioned are either 2:1 (by people who just want to win quickly and/or frequently) and 99:1 (by people hoping for a big pay out).
Both of these options are legitimate tactics. I would advise people to give serious thought as to how patient they are willing to be when looking for a profit. When I tested the various odds, I raced each one 10 times. Personally, after 10 races, I want to be able to see that I’ve made a profit. If you want to see wins more frequently, you may want to bet the closer odds. If you are a person who can wait 100 races for the chance at a big pay-off, feel free to bet the longshot.
To test these, I raced each of the various betting levels 10 times and recorded my wins and winnings. Here’s what I found:
2:1 Odds – Payout: $6,000. I won 4 out of the 10 races. My total cost: $20,000. My total payout: $24,000. Profit: $4,000
5:1 Odds – Payout: $12,000. I won 3 out of 10 races. My total cost: $20,000. My total payout: $36,000. Profit: $16,00
9:1 Odds – Payout: $20,000. I won 1 out of 10 races. My total cost: $20,000. My total payout: $20,000. Break even.
19:1 Odds – Payout: $40,000. I won 1 out 10 races. My total cost: $20,000. My total payout: $40,000. Profit: $20,000
99:1 Odds – Payout $200,000. I won 0 out 10 races. My total cost: $20,000. My total payout: $0. Loss: $20,000
ANOTHER WAY TO BET
There is one other way to think about betting at Springfield Downs. Ignore the odds and bet on just one dog. The dogs move around between the various betting levels. I was curious what would happen if I repeatedly put my money on the same dog, regardless of his odds.
Those who have read my posts on the various “dog” threads in the Couch section will not be at all surprised that I let it all ride on Drool Brittania.
Of his ten races, he raced at 2:1 three times and won all of those.
He raced at 9:1 twice and won one of those.
He raced at 19:1 twice and lost both of those.
He raced at 99:1 three times and lost all of those.
I spent $20,000 on his 10 races. He earned $38,000. Total profit: $18,000
CONCLUSIONS
I earned the highest payout betting at 19:1 odds. However, I most enjoyed betting on 99:1, each time thinking how great it would be to hit that big pay-off. And I did like the variety of betting on just one dog and am seriously considering using that as my plan for the future.
As I stated at the start, it is up to each player to decide how patient they are willing to be and bet at the appropriate level.
However you bet, I do believe consistency is the key. Don’t give up or change your plans if you don’t win after a couple of races. Stick with it!
Also, it’s worth noting that overall, I DID earn a profit running this test – even with the $20,000 loss at the 99:1 odds. In all, the 60 races above earned me $38,000.
So GOOD LUCK and HAPPY RACING!
I had always hoped someone might write a guide to betting at the Downs. So when EA reconfigured the odds recently, I set out to do just that. Here’s what I found out. I hope it might prove helpful to others.
ODDS – What do they mean?
I am not a gambler in real life, so the first thing I had to do was try to figure out what those odds actually meant – or are supposed to mean.
Racing odds are expressed in terms of the payout. Odds are expressed as a ratio – two numbers separated by a colon. The first number is your potential earnings (if your dog wins) and the second number is what is known as the “stake” (the amount of money you’re betting). At the Downs, you are always betting $2,000. So, if your dog is racing at 2:1 odds, what should happen when you win is that the track will pay you 2 dollars for every 1 dollar you “staked.” I say “should happen” because that’s what would happen at a real horse or dog track. At Springfield Downs, a $2,000 bet at 2:1 odds will actually earn you $6,000.
All of the various betting levels at Springfield Downs have a similarly generous pay-out.
Now, in the real world, the odds are expressed in terms of the payout because, while bookies can make a reasonable guess as to a likelihood of winning, they can’t know exactly. The odds reflect that likelihood, but no one could ever say that if the same race were run 3 times, that horse would win once and lose twice.
At Springfield Downs, however, where the dogs are electronically programmed, it actually IS possible to say that a dog racing at 2:1 odds will win one race out of every three. I can’t say for certain that EA has set the races up that way, but my findings do show that the odds do seem to reflect the likelihood of winning.
BETTING THE ODDS
OK, this is the part you’re interested in. I’ve noted from posts in other threads that most people tend to bet repeatedly at the same odds. The most frequent odds I’ve seen mentioned are either 2:1 (by people who just want to win quickly and/or frequently) and 99:1 (by people hoping for a big pay out).
Both of these options are legitimate tactics. I would advise people to give serious thought as to how patient they are willing to be when looking for a profit. When I tested the various odds, I raced each one 10 times. Personally, after 10 races, I want to be able to see that I’ve made a profit. If you want to see wins more frequently, you may want to bet the closer odds. If you are a person who can wait 100 races for the chance at a big pay-off, feel free to bet the longshot.
To test these, I raced each of the various betting levels 10 times and recorded my wins and winnings. Here’s what I found:
2:1 Odds – Payout: $6,000. I won 4 out of the 10 races. My total cost: $20,000. My total payout: $24,000. Profit: $4,000
5:1 Odds – Payout: $12,000. I won 3 out of 10 races. My total cost: $20,000. My total payout: $36,000. Profit: $16,00
9:1 Odds – Payout: $20,000. I won 1 out of 10 races. My total cost: $20,000. My total payout: $20,000. Break even.
19:1 Odds – Payout: $40,000. I won 1 out 10 races. My total cost: $20,000. My total payout: $40,000. Profit: $20,000
99:1 Odds – Payout $200,000. I won 0 out 10 races. My total cost: $20,000. My total payout: $0. Loss: $20,000
ANOTHER WAY TO BET
There is one other way to think about betting at Springfield Downs. Ignore the odds and bet on just one dog. The dogs move around between the various betting levels. I was curious what would happen if I repeatedly put my money on the same dog, regardless of his odds.
Those who have read my posts on the various “dog” threads in the Couch section will not be at all surprised that I let it all ride on Drool Brittania.
Of his ten races, he raced at 2:1 three times and won all of those.
He raced at 9:1 twice and won one of those.
He raced at 19:1 twice and lost both of those.
He raced at 99:1 three times and lost all of those.
I spent $20,000 on his 10 races. He earned $38,000. Total profit: $18,000
CONCLUSIONS
I earned the highest payout betting at 19:1 odds. However, I most enjoyed betting on 99:1, each time thinking how great it would be to hit that big pay-off. And I did like the variety of betting on just one dog and am seriously considering using that as my plan for the future.
As I stated at the start, it is up to each player to decide how patient they are willing to be and bet at the appropriate level.
However you bet, I do believe consistency is the key. Don’t give up or change your plans if you don’t win after a couple of races. Stick with it!
Also, it’s worth noting that overall, I DID earn a profit running this test – even with the $20,000 loss at the 99:1 odds. In all, the 60 races above earned me $38,000.
So GOOD LUCK and HAPPY RACING!
