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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2013 12:29:24 GMT -5
This configuration is found in consumables.xml. PrizeBox/PlatinumPriceBox: The chances of the items in a box are related to each other. When determining which item is picked within a box, a number between 0 and 1 is generated. This number is compared to the chances of the items in order, and takes the first one with a chance greater or equal to the number generated. PrizeBox (MysteryBox) |
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| Reward | Chance | Probability | PrizeBox | 0,10983 | 10,983% | LemonTree | 250$ | 0,20983 | 10,000% | ParkingLot | 0,30983 | 10,000% | 5x WoodenFence | 0,40983 | 10,000% | Tree02 | 0,50983 | 10,000% | 3x LargeHedge | 0,60983 | 10,000% | NewspaperDispenser | 0,70983 | 10,000% | 3x SpecialWoodenFence | 0,74983 | 4,000% | Gazebo | 0,78983 | 4,000% | BushSculpture | 0,82983 | 4,000% | 500$ | 0,86983 | 4,000% | SpecialBench | 0,90983 | 4,000% | 1000$ | 0,94983 | 4,000% | 10 donuts | 0,96983 | 2,000% | SqueakyVoiceTeen | 30 donuts | 0,98983 | 2,000% | PlatinumPrizeBox | 0,99983 | 1,000% | 2500$ | 0,99993 | 0,010% | 30 donuts | 0,99997 | 0,004% | SpringfieldTireyard | 40 donuts | 0,99999 | 0,002% | LardLadsDonuts | 1,00000 | 0,001% |
PlatinumPrizeBox (HomerBuddha) |
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| Reward | Chance | Probability | PrizeBox | 0,09983 | 9,983% | SpecialBench | 0,19983 | 10,000% | SpecialPlanter | 0,29983 | 10,000% | SpecialDumpster | 0,39983 | 10,000% | 10x SpecialWoodenFence | 0,49983 | 10,000% | SpecialFireShrub | 0,59983 | 10,000% | SpecialOrangeTree | 0,69983 | 10,000% | SpecialAppleTree | 0,79983 | 10,000% | SpecialPlayTree | 0,89983 | 10,000% | SqueakyVoiceTeen | 30 donuts | 0,93983 | 4,000% | HansMoleman | 60 donuts | 0,97983 | 4,000% | FrinksLab | 150 donuts | 0,98983 | 1,000% | 30 donuts | 0,99983 | 1,000% | SpringfieldTireyard | 40 donuts | 0,99993 | 0,010% | SpringfieldSign | 170 donuts | 0,99997 | 0,004% | DuffBrewery | 190 donuts | 0,99999 | 0,002% | VolcanoLair | 200 donuts | 1,00000 | 0,001% |
Scratcher/GoldScratcher: The chances of the rewards from scratchers are not related to each other. GoldScratchers may be implemented as IAP in next TSTO versions ... Scratcher |
| Reward | Probability | 10000$ | 1,00% | 2500$ | 4,00% | 1250$ | 10,00% | 750$ | 20,00% | 500$ | 33,00% | 350$ | 32,00% |
GoldScratcher |
| Reward | Probability | 100 donuts | 2,00% | 50 donuts | 4,00% | 20 donuts | 10,00% | 12 donuts | 20,00% | 9 donuts | 33,33% | 6 donuts | 30,37% |
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Post by calerock on Feb 23, 2013 12:35:55 GMT -5
What's a golden scratcher?
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Post by andrewajc on Feb 23, 2013 12:39:50 GMT -5
That would be cool if they added a golden scratch card that gave donuts at prizes... so long as it doesn't cost too much to play
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2013 12:52:48 GMT -5
What's a golden scratcher? It is not implemented (yet?), this would be a nice In-App Purchase for 0.99 USD.
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Post by sc on Feb 23, 2013 12:58:18 GMT -5
SpringfieldSign | 170 donuts | 0,99997 | 0,004% | DuffBrewery | 190 donuts | 0,99999 | 0,002% | VolcanoLair | 200 donuts | 1,00000 | 0,001% |
Is this confirmed? I have never heard of those being eligible prizes, but interesting to know
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Post by calerock on Feb 23, 2013 13:05:01 GMT -5
What's a golden scratcher? It is not implemented (yet?), this would be a nice In-App Purchase for 0.99 USD. Wouldn't really be "nice" Sure, you have a chance at 100, but you have a better chance to get 6 or 9..I'd rather just buy 12
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Post by Duder on Feb 23, 2013 13:11:51 GMT -5
Are these numbers taken directly from the Raw Files? Can you give an example of how the process works for the Homer Buddha? I'm not sure I completely grasp how the item is chosen, but an example would really help. Thanks.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2013 13:18:58 GMT -5
Are these numbers taken directly from the Raw Files? Can you give an example of how the process works for the Homer Buddha? I'm not sure I completely grasp how the item is chosen, but an example would really help. Thanks. Yes, and there is an example too: type Box: Reward - an item which can be obtained from the box Attributes: money, donuts, xp, chance Tags: (optional) Item: An inventory item which is given as a reward Attributes: type: one of "building", "character", "consumable", or "memorabilia" name: the name of the building/character/consumable to gain chance: the chance of the item being obtained The chances of the items in a box are related to each other. When determining which item is picked within a box, a number between 0 and 1 is generated. This number is compared to the chances of the items in order, and takes the first one with a chance greater or equal to the number generated. If no items have a greater value, no item is obtained. Example: Items with chances: 0.2, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.65 Value rolled: 0.46 Compare with first: 0.2 < 0.46, fails. Compare with second: 0.4 < 0.46, fails Compare with third: 0.5 >= 0.46, passes <- this item is awarded, stop here. If a number greater than 0.65 was rolled, no item would be awarded.
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Post by Duder on Feb 23, 2013 13:37:54 GMT -5
@j3xx9 - Very good info. I think I've grasped this, but can you confirm my interpretation of the explanation (in less technical terms)?
I buy a Homer Buddha. Step 1 is a random # generation, with the # generated being >0 and <=1. For this example, the random # is .72. The random # is compared to the "Chance" number. For the Homer Buddha, .72 would give an Apple Tree, since the first "Chance" number greater than .72 is the Apple Tree (.79983). Is this the correct interpretation?
Thanks for spelling this out for me, I appreciate it greatly!
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2013 13:53:15 GMT -5
@j3xx9 - Very good info. I think I've grasped this, but can you confirm my interpretation of the explanation (in less technical terms)? I buy a Homer Buddha. Step 1 is a random # generation, with the # generated being >0 and <=1. For this example, the random # is .72. The random # is compared to the "Chance" number. For the Homer Buddha, .72 would give an Apple Tree, since the first "Chance" number greater than .72 is the Apple Tree (.79983). Is this the correct interpretation? Thanks for spelling this out for me, I appreciate it greatly! Thanks, you're welcome. Your interpretation is correct, it would be an apple tree. It will iterate through every reward "PrizeBox", "SpecialBench", "SpecialPlanter", ... until the reward-chance is higher or equal than the random number.
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Post by Linguo Is Dead on Feb 23, 2013 14:59:50 GMT -5
Thanks for this!
It also means the only useful thing left in the mystery box for me is lard lad. And in Buddha it would be the duff brewery or the Springfield sign. (the other rewards cost less than the prize of a Buddha).
Thus there is no reason for me to ever gamble buying either one. Good to know for sure.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2013 16:26:19 GMT -5
Great post but what about the 60 donuts and 150 donuts? Those are buddha prizes as well.
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Post by epicpilot1337 on Feb 23, 2013 17:02:13 GMT -5
Ok, but how do improve my chances
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Post by pchd on Feb 23, 2013 17:05:46 GMT -5
Guess I won't try buying a mystery box then and just keep hoping it will someday (on the weekly chance) give me the lemon tree....
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2013 17:08:16 GMT -5
Great post but what about the 60 donuts and 150 donuts? Those are buddha prizes as well. I guess the doughnuts are the rewards if you already own the related unique building/decoration. HansMoleman | 60 donuts | 0,97983 | 4,000% | FrinksLab | 150 donuts | 0,98983 | 1,000% |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 23, 2013 17:18:17 GMT -5
Guess I won't try buying a mystery box then and just keep hoping it will someday (on the weekly chance) give me the lemon tree.... Hang in there! The lemon tree (although it is not stealable anymore) is by far my favorite item.
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maw1212
Donut Dunker
Posts: 62 Likes: 12
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Post by maw1212 on Feb 23, 2013 18:32:56 GMT -5
Wow they have the nerve! They promote the box with lards lad and tire fire - but their chances are ridicilous
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Post by ThorButtockth on Feb 23, 2013 18:53:27 GMT -5
This is some great info. Thanks.
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Post by gkpiggy on Feb 23, 2013 19:01:41 GMT -5
Great info indeed, this post rocks. Those % all seem valid wrt all the empirical evidence in other posts but it is nice to have it in concrete.
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maw1212
Donut Dunker
Posts: 62 Likes: 12
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Post by maw1212 on Feb 24, 2013 18:32:02 GMT -5
Make it sticky!
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Post by Son of Archimedes on Feb 24, 2013 18:59:57 GMT -5
Wow they have the nerve! They promote the box with lards lad and tire fire - but their chances are ridicilous Seriously! This means the odds of hitting tire fire is 1:50,000. And hitting lards lad is 1:100,000!!!
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Post by dcline414 on Feb 26, 2013 10:58:25 GMT -5
It is not implemented (yet?), this would be a nice In-App Purchase for 0.99 USD. Wouldn't really be "nice" Sure, you have a chance at 100, but you have a better chance to get 6 or 9..I'd rather just buy 12 12 costs $2... So getting 6 for $1 is no worse, and could be much better. Of course, this makes me think it will be more than $1...
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Post by Battyguy on Feb 28, 2013 22:44:24 GMT -5
(mb laugh)Just post the cheat.
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Post by gkpiggy on Mar 1, 2013 9:21:54 GMT -5
Taking the above percentages, looks like the following are expected return Buddha ~16.6 donuts of value Scratch-R ~13.2 Interesting that Buddha you actually get a bit more than you put into it. Of course, that assumes you fully value things like the dumpster and the bench . The Scratch-R is a decent return if you are buying a small amount of donuts, at least if you compare to the somewhat outrageous store prices and ignore things like itunes discounts. Exactly same expected return as buying a Tray, anything less it is better to get Scratch-R, anything more worse.
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Post by dcline414 on Mar 1, 2013 11:23:53 GMT -5
Taking the above percentages, looks like the following are expected return Buddha ~16.6 donuts of value Scratch-R ~13.2 Interesting that Buddha you actually get a bit more than you put into it. Of course, that assumes you fully value things like the dumpster and the bench . Worth noting the distribution of the Buddhas, since you need to buy A LOT (like a hundred) to see the full distribution of payouts. If you are buying less, the odds are you will lose money (donuts). Here is how I break it down: Odds of Getting: | | | A lower value item (6-10) | | 49.98% | An even value item (15) | | 20.00% | A slightly higher value item (20-30) | | 25.00% | A moderately higher value item (40-60) | 4.01% | A jackpot item (150-200) | | 1.01% |
So if you buy 4 buddhas, then two would be items worth only 6-10 donuts, one would be an item worth 15 donuts, and one would be a slightly higher value item worth 20-30 donuts. Even if you buy 10 buddhas, there is only a 10% chance that any of them will be worth more than 60 donuts, so you still lose money. If you buy 20, you have an 18% chance. Even if you buy 100, there is a 36% chance that none of them will be worth more than 60. Basically, if you're going to buy one buddah, you really have to commit to continue buying them until you get a 150+ donut item or you will have paid more donuts than the items you received are worth.
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